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Domestic paper price shock upward later or will tend to fall

Domestic paper price shock upward later or will tend to fall


Since August 2020, the price of domestic cultural paper has fluctuated upward, especially since this year, the price has experienced three waves of different degrees of increase.

In January, the prices of various types of paper, such as double offset paper and coated paper, generally increased by 200-500 yuan / ton. At the end of January, the price increased again. In February and March, the prices continued to increase by 300-500 yuan / ton on the basis of the previous price. According to Longzhong information data monitoring, so far, the average price of domestic double offset paper market is 6630 yuan per ton, up 28.56% from the end of last year and 7.63% from the same period last year; The average price of coated paper was 7212 yuan, up 26.91% from the end of last year and 25.08% from the same period last year.

"The domestic paper market belongs to complete market competition, with many supply enterprises and many market demanders. Since the beginning of this year, domestic paper prices have risen, reflecting that China's economy has recovered well from last year's epidemic, and market demand has gradually recovered. " Wu Meng, senior analyst of Longzhong information paper industry chain, said that the downstream of cultural paper is mainly the order of teaching materials. The traditional peak season of cultural paper is from March to May and from September to November every year. It is mainly the publishing house's paper bidding for teaching materials, which has a certain support for the total demand of the market. With the effective control of the epidemic and universal vaccination, personnel mobility has increased, and the overall market demand has increased to a certain extent compared with last year.

Wu Meng believes that there are the following reasons for the rise in domestic paper prices: first, the rise in costs. Pulp is the main raw material of papermaking, and it accounts for about 80% of its cost in China's domestic paper price. Since the beginning of this year, the price of upstream pulp has increased significantly. Since December last year, the price of the main contract of pulp futures in Shanghai Futures Exchange has fluctuated upward. At present, the price of pulp market is about 7000 yuan per ton, with a cumulative increase of over 60%. In addition to pulp, since the beginning of this year, a variety of paper-making and chemical auxiliary materials have also increased significantly. For example, from January to March, the price of starch increased by 12.84%, and the price of carboxylated styrene butadiene latex increased by 10.77%. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic paper price has increased, and the cost has been pushed up more obviously. In order to alleviate the cost pressure, domestic paper enterprises continuously increase the sales price.

Second, there is a periodic shortage of supply. Wu Meng said that domestic paper enterprises have the habit of stopping production and limiting production in off-season. This January is the Spring Festival, and many paper enterprises stop for maintenance. According to statistics, domestic paper enterprises reduced the supply of cultural paper by about 160000 tons in January, accounting for about 12.73% of the total output of cultural paper. At the end of March, coated paper manufacturers issued a notice of routine maintenance in spring, which is expected to affect the supply of coated paper in April about 60000 tons, accounting for about 15.14% of the total output of coated paper in April. Other types of paper, such as white cardboard, reduced production by 15% in April, and household paper stopped production in March, with less than 50% of production started.

Wu Meng believes that the late paper prices tend to fall. From the supply side, the domestic paper market supply side changed little in the first half of the year. There is no new production plan for coated paper in 2021, and the supply tends to be stable. At present, domestic double offset paper enterprises have no plans to stop production for the time being. Double offset paper will be put into production in the second half of 2021, with a new production capacity of about 960000 tons.

From the demand side, social orders did not perform well in March, with high prices restraining some demand. Some businesses were optimistic about the future market and prepared for stock in advance. In addition, the current intermediate trade link inventory is still at a high level, and it is expected that social orders will still be difficult to increase significantly in the later period. 

Wu Meng said that from the past situation, some domestic paper prices, such as cultural paper, have obvious attributes in the light and peak seasons, and there will be a more obvious downward trend after the peak season. For example, during the peak season of 2018, the price of double offset paper rose by 5.30% from March to may, and after the peak season, the price fell by 8.28% from June to July; The same is true in 2019, with prices rising by 4.62% in peak season and falling by 1.83% in off-season.

"Comprehensive judgment, it is expected that in May and June this year, domestic paper prices will show a narrow decline. However, due to the recent rebound in pulp prices, high costs inhibit the downward space of paper prices. " Wu Meng said that with the listing and development of pulp futures, the financial attribute of the pulp market has been enhanced in recent years. In the later stage of the paper industry, it should pay more attention to the price trend of wood pulp, at the same time, it should timely understand the downstream demand and inventory consumption, actively adjust the production schedule, optimize the production structure, maintain reasonable profits and reduce operational risks. Downstream users should pay more attention to the market, timely understand the price dynamics, avoid blindly following the trend and hoarding to help the paper market develop smoothly and normally.

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